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by Robert Kimball
Bulletin Staff
from the Weekly Bulletin, 5/26/99
The number 10,123 on a flip chart was the first thing everyone saw as they entered the meeting room at the Sonoita Fire Station last Wednesday for a meeting of the Sonoita Crossroads Forum. Forum planner Lee Nellis told the 30-some people in the room that he would explain the significance of the number later.
"The notion that there's going to be a no-growth scenario for the Sonoita Valley is not supported by the facts," said Nellis. "If a law was passed tomorrow prohibiting any future growth, legally 522 dwelling units could still be built in the Sonoita Valley. Those sites are already platted," he said.
Nellis has 25 years of planning experience which includes working for a county planning department, teaching planning at the university level and running his own planning consulting business. He currently works both for the Sonoran Institute in Tucson and the Sonoita Crossroads Forum.
The Forum is working on a land use plan for the Sonoita Valley. The process includes a series of public meetings, some of which are informational while others are hands-on planning meetings with maximum participation from the public. The Forum is not proposing what the plan should be. It's working to develop a consensus within the community that will result in a comprehensive plan that can be presented to the Santa Cruz County Board of Supervisors.
Santa Cruz County has been mandated to revise its comprehensive plan for the entire county by Dec. 31, 2001.
Nellis said that contrary to what some might think, the Sonoita Valley gets more than its share of county services. Nellis pointed out that all of his statistics for the Sonoita Valley are based on the Sonoita Elementary School District's geographical area which starts at Adobe Canyon and includes the area between Adobe and the Cochise County line.
Based on Nellis's calculations the Sonoita Valley receives six percent of what the county spends while providing only 3.5 percent of the county's revenue. Or put another way, the county spends $1.50 for services in the Sonoita Valley for every doliar it receives from the area in taxes.
Area road maintenance costs are 15 percent of the county's budget even though only three percent of the roads are in this part of the county. The Sonoita land fill runs a $60,000 deficit each year, he said.
Sheriff's Department coverage is better than what Nellis has seen in other similar rural areas he has studied.
According to Nellis, the current population of the Sonoita Valley is 1,200. Since 1960 there have been 1,365 new parcels created. Over the past eight years an average of 34 new homes have been built each year. At that rate the population of the area doubles every 19 years, he said.
The current services can support 34 new houses a year for the next 10 years, he said.
Pima County is growing at 12-15,000 people a year. Next year baby boomers start to retire and their rate of retirement will increase for the next 20 years. Many will be looking for a place to retire. Population growth in neighboring counties and retiring baby boomers have the potential to increase the growth rate in the Sonoita Valley, he said.
"The Sonoita Valley is extremely vulnerable to one decision that could drive the system over the threshold. A developer could decide to build 200 homes. Based on the current growth rate of 34 homes a year, 10 years before additional services are needed becomes 30 or 60 days," he said.
"If all the available land in the area was to be subdivided and a home built on each parcel, the Sonoita Valley would contain 10,123 homes. The population would be 17-18,000 people," he said. "All of this is possible with current zoning."
The Sonoita Crossroads commercial area is now close to the threshold of needing a sewer and water district to support additional growth. Based on NellisŐs experience it would take three to five years from the day the decision was made to seek approval for a sewer and water district until construction could begin.
The next Sonoita Crossroads meeting is June 12 at the Elgin Club from 9 a.m. to 3 p.m. This will be a hands-on meeting that will show how rural communities have successfully developed and implemented plans.
For more information contact Shel at 455-4711 or Chris Peterson 455-9388.
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